Why not start our team projections with one of the toughest divisions in baseball – the AL East. Four teams in this division are projected to have winning records outside the division this year. The only problem is that they have to play a ton of games against each other. Looking at this division in depth makes you really start feeling sorry for Baltimore fans. They have absolutely no chance this year. Check that, they have absolutely no chance any year.
The table below shows the MORPS projected final 2012 standings. Boston will win the division with a record of 98 and 64. The talent has always been in bean town. Now they have a manager that will force them to play hard which should translate into wins. New York will finish second with 92 wins and make the playoffs as a wild card. Well…. They’ll make the second wild card if the commissioner is able to add a second playoff team to each division. Yankee fans should be lobbying for that extra spot because the West is going to take the first one. Toronto and Tampa Bay will be the most impacted by this tough division. If either of these teams were in the central, they would have a shot at making the playoffs. In the East they will be 3rd and 4th respectively.
|
2012 AL East |
Wins |
Losses |
|
Boston |
98 |
64 |
|
New York |
92 |
70 |
|
Tampa Bay |
84 |
78 |
|
Toronto |
81 |
81 |
|
Baltimore |
68 |
94 |
I noticed a couple of interesting things from crunching the numbers. First, the Yankees are projected to have the best pitching staff in the division. Second, Boston has the best offense in the American League. Third, the most improved team will be Boston with a +8 win differential over last year. Fourth, Tampa Bay will have the most regression with a -7 win differential from 2011. That being said, their manager gets the most out of the least in all of baseball. If anyone can fly in the face of player projections, it will be Tampa Bay.
These projections will obviously be impacted by player personnel moves prior to the start of the season. But, I really don’t see the standings changing with most of the big names free agents already off the board.
Tags: AL East, baseball, Blue Jays, MLB, MORPS, Orioles, Projections, Rays, Red Sox, Sabermetrics, Yankees
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