MORPS 2012 AL Central Team Projections

In stark contrast with the AL East, the AL Central is the weakest division in the American League. Actually, it may be the weakest division in all of baseball. All but one team will end the 2012 season with a losing record. Detroit is the only team that will have a winning record against teams outside the division.

The table below shows the MORPS projected final 2012 standings. Detroit will win the division with a record of 89 and 73. The addition of Fielder has certainly enhanced their lineup, but the loss of Victor Martinez is still a huge blow to the Tigers. Cabrera has been projected to start at 3B this year. Based upon previous history, his error rate will increase significantly which will force the team to move him to DH at some point in 2012. This will limit the ability of a player like Ryan Raburn to contribute on a consistent basis. Detroit will be replacing those at-bats with the production of Brandon Inge. This will certainly limit their offensive production which will decrease their total wins in comparison to last year. Cleveland had an opportunity to make up ground on Detroit during the offseason. Unfortunately for Indian fans, the team simply doesn’t have the money to invest in big name free agents. The addition of Kotchman and Lowe will not be enough to move past second place in the division. The White Sox, in a division of mediocrity, will once again finish in third.

I noticed a couple of interesting things from crunching the numbers. First, the White Sox will have the best pitching staff in the division. Second, Detroit will have the best offense in the division and the fourth best in the American League. Third, Minnesota will be the most improved team in the division with a +4 win differential. Fourth, Detroit will have the most regression with a -6 win differential from 2011. Just like Tampa Bay in the East, they may be able to add a few more wins to that total based upon the quality of their manager Jim Leyland.

These projections will obviously be impacted by player personnel moves prior to the start of the season.

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